If the Conservative Party are going to down, they’re going to go down swinging – and making a few quid, if the latest allegations in the General Election betting saga are to be believed.
Barely a week after one of Rishi Sunak’s Parliamentary aides admitting to betting on the date of the UK General Election in July – privileged information that had yet been revealed publicly, a whole host of other individuals have now been arrested or have voluntarily agreed to be questioned by authorities.
Amongst them are standing MPs, candidates at the upcoming vote, Parliamentary support staff and even the Prime Minister’s police protection officer.
But the question remains: did they place their bets using insider knowledge, or did they wager legitimately?
Timing is Everything
A number of sportsbooks, and each of the main UK-facing exchanges, have long offered a betting market for the date of the next General Election.
Earlier in the political cycle, this is typically a year – but as the end of the four-year leadership term for the sitting party approaches, the market is sliced into monthly chunks.
A flurry of bets – which some might describe as suspiciously timed – were placed with bookmakers and exchanges back in May; before Sunak had revealed to the world that the General Election would go ahead on July 4.
Craig Williams, the Prime Minister’s private secretary, was the first domino to fall – openly admitting that he had placed a £100 wager on a July Election at a branch of Ladbrokes in the Welsh constituency of Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr that he plans to stand for election in.
A number of other individuals are thought to be assisting investigators with their inquiries, including Tony Lee – the Conservative Party director of campaigning – and Laura Saunders, Lee’s wife and a former employee at the Tories’ campaign headquarters who is standing for election in Bristol North West.
The plot thickened earlier this week when it was confirmed that Sunak’s personal police officer, who would accompany the PM on public engagements, had been arrested and hauled in for questioning.
It is a criminal offence, as per the Gambling Act, to bet on an event of which you already know the outcome – especially when using insider knowledge that is privileged and not in the public domain. The spectrum of sanctions available ranges from fines right through to prison time.
The Gambling Commission has confirmed that it’s investigating a number of individuals and a flurry of bets struck before the Prime Minister had announced the election date. Any wager with a potential profit of £199 or more, struck on or around May 21, is under the microscope.
Sunak himself was forced into a tight spot on the BBC’s Question Time on Thursday evening, telling the audience he was ‘incredibly angry’ at what had unfolded and promising to ‘boot out’ any party member found to be guilty of having placed a nefarious bet.
The PM revealed that ‘….what I can tell you is if anyone is found to have broken the rules, not only should they face the full consequences of the law, I will make sure that they are booted out of the Conservative Party.’
However, he is yet to suspend any Tory member from their role.
Damning Evidence
The BBC’s political correspondent, Chris Mason, has revealed the data which has proven rather damning to those protesting their innocence – while hinting at a larger scandal.
On May 22, the Prime Minister announced that a General Eelection had been scheduled for July 4. On May 21, a stack of bets were placed on that very outcome.
According to Smarkets, one of the prominent exchanges in the UK, the odds of a July election rose from 18% to 95%, as per implied probability, in a single afternoon on May 21.
A separate examination from The Guardian looked into the date of the Betfair Exchange. They found that more than £3,000 was wagered on a July election on May 21 – in the weeks prior, the average daily bet on the same market had equated to £27.
Excl: Here’s what happens if you scrape Betfair data for bets on a July election.
This graph cuts off at the end of 21 May, the day before Sunak announced the election.
There’s a flood of bets that day – before Rishi formally told the cabinet and stood in Downing Street. pic.twitter.com/AfKyzAbDBQ
— Jim Waterson (@jimwaterson) June 20, 2024
Although the political markets are a relatively small slice of the overall sports betting offering, the numbers of wagers placed and the total betting handle does tend to increase heading towards an election.
However, for the turnover of one book to increase by more than 1,000%, the day before the election date was even officially revealed, stinks of impropriety.