Although they’ve been installed as a narrow underdog for the game, if England were to win the 2024 European Championships final in Berlin on Sunday it would be a dog day evening for the bookies.
Gareth Southgate’s men had been the outright favourites to lift the trophy before a ball had been kicked and throughout the group stage, until Spain – backed by impressive performances – usurped them as tournament favourites at the semi-final stage.
Now, the pair will meet in Sunday’s curtain call – with an England win set to be a disaster for even the most patriotic of UK bookmakers….
Counting the Cost
A spokesperson for William Hill admitted that the level of support for the Three Lions had been exacerbated by the brand’s own ‘Top Price Guarantee’, which ensured they matched the best price available on the high street.
Lee Phelps admitted that a win for England would cost the firm tens of millions.
“As we have been Top Price Guarantee for the duration of the tournament and before it started, an England win would cost us deep into seven figures,” he confirmed.
Paddy Power have also confirmed that their loss would run into the ‘millions’.
“We desperately want the Three Lions’ pain to continue for another 60 years, as we will lose millions if Gareth Southgate’s side finally lift a trophy,” the brand’s Rachael Kane revealed.
A popular home favourite is always a danger to bookmakers, but especially so at juicy prices of 4/1 and 9/2 – as England were before the tournament got underway.
That could be a cause for a double celebration on Sunday for Three Lions fans, and particularly so if Harry Kane finds his form; many punters had backed him to win the tournament’s Golden Boot, which remains another of the bookies’ main liabilities heading into the final.
In the Hole
One of the drawbacks of the bookmaking trade is when a red-hot fancy lands for punters – bookies can’t always lay off their liability at a price that makes their operation financially viable.
Not that many will be racing to dust off their violins, but the 2016 Cheltenham Festival was a particular nadir for the trade – costing bookmakers an estimated £60 million.
Many of the big races of the meeting were won by favourites, including Don Cossack in the Gold Cup, allied to a disastrous opening day, when the likes of Douvan, Annie Power and Vroum Vroum Mag all won as well-backed market principles. All told, ten of the 28 races were won by a favourite.
Ladbrokes would later admit that the Festival was the ‘worst in living memory’ in terms of financial losses, while William Hill took a hit so bad that their annual profit was some £30 million short of forecasted results.
When well-backed favourites romp home in the Grand National, it can prove particularly disastrous for the bookmakers – as Tiger Roll proved in 2019.
He was looking to go back-to-back in the Aintree showpiece, and having been well treated by the handicapper, punters were not shy to get stuck in – by the off, the Gigginstown horse was as short as 4/1 to prevail in the steeplechase.
Tiger Roll ran handily all the way around the 4m 2f circuit and was never troubled down the home straight; his victory sending punters into raptures. Bookmakers, on the other hand, collectively had their heads in their hands – the win costing them a reported £250 million.
According to Betway’s Alan Alger, it was the ‘most expensive result in Grand National history’ for the bookmakers.
Ironically, in 2024 it was a joint-favourite that saved the bookmakers millions of pounds. Although I Am Maximus was well-fancied by many shrewd judges, more ‘casual’ punters instead backed his co-favourite Corach Rambler – the defending champion.
But it was I Am Maximus who led the field home, saving bookies from another nine-figure payout on Grand National day.
It’s rare for football to have instances in which the bookmakers get a good hiding, but there could have been one had England defeated Italy in the 2020 European Championships final.
Although exact figures aren’t known, it’s thought that an England victory would have cost bookies an eight-figure sum – so much so that on the eve of the game at Wembley Stadium, the share price of Flutter, the holding company of Paddy Power and Betfair, fell.
If Harry Kane and co reign victorious on Sunday, UK bookmakers won’t know whether to celebrate or drown their sorrows as their annual bonus takes a big hit!