It’s a public relations exercise… but one that can come back and bite a bookie on the bum.
Betfred and Paddy Power and have both decided to pay out early on bets backing Liverpool to win the Premier League title during this 2024/25 season; despite the fact that there’s still more than ten games left to play.
It’s not the first time that the Irish firm has settled bets prematurely. And it looks like they’ll have egg on their collective face after paying out on Everton to be relegated after just two games of the campaign, with the Toffees are now 14 points clear of the dropzone.
Paddy Power have paid out early – and ended up on the wrong side of things – on several occasions, while Betfred owner Fred Done was left red-faced in 1998 when he paid out early on Manchester United to win the Premier League title… only for Arsenal to pip the Red Devils to the post.
And having to pay out both United and Arsenal backers is thought to have cost the firm £500,000… when adjusted for inflation, that’s about £1 million today.
Big Weekend
It is, of course, a controlled PR exercise: both firms will know what their liability is on Liverpool winning the title, will have probably laid plenty of bets off already and will have come to the conclusion that the positive news spin will, ultimately, be worth the expense.
But even so, it can be an embarrassing own goal when things don’t go according to plan.
Two results at the weekend triggered the early payout from both Paddy Power and Betfred. First up was Arsenal’s surprise 0-1 defeat to West Ham, which left them eight points adrift of Liverpool, who themselves faced a tricky trip to Manchester City on Sunday.
But the Reds made light work of their sojourn to the Etihad Stadium, with goals from Mo Salah and Dominik Szoboszlai seeing Arne Slot’s men run out comfortable 2-0 winners.
All of which meant that a weekend in which Liverpool’s lead over Arsenal at the top of the Premier League table could have been snipped to five points was, in actual fact, extended to eleven. And Betfred and Paddy Power had seen enough.
And Done said:
“As a lifelong Manchester United fan, it pains me having to pay out on Liverpool winning the Premier League title for a second time.
“After this weekend’s results, I believe the writing is on the wall and Liverpool will win the league this season in convincing fashion. To anybody who’s backed them to win the title with us, go and collect your money.”
Premature Celebration
Betfred owner Done was the first bookmaker to pay out early on the outcome of the Premier League title race… and he was spectacularly wrong to do so in a move that cost him the best part of £1 million, adjusted for inflation, back in 1998.
You would have thought that he learned his lesson from that escapade, but fast forward to 2012 and Done is at it again. This time, he paid out early again on his beloved Manchester United when they opened up a five-point gap to local rivals Manchester City in April.
“Back in 1998, Fergie told me to never pay out early again but Sir Alex need not worry, I’ve not got it wrong this time,” Done claimed.
He was, erm, wrong again, once again letting his heart rule his head. United flopped in the final few weeks of the season, City made gains and then, on perhaps the most remarkable final day of an English football campaign, claimed the title
on goal difference thanks to Sergio Aguero’s last-gasp heroics.
Although the exact amount lost isn’t known, it’s thought that paying out on United once again cost Done north of £500,000.
Paddy Power’s rollcall of woe is even more impressive. Back in 2016, he paid out early on Hilary Clinton to win the U.S. presidential election ahead of Donald Trump. When Trump was declared the winner, it reportedly cost the Irish firm a cool £4 million.
They also paid out early on Tiger Woods to win the 2009 PGA Championship. He was four shots clear heading into the final round, but Hazeltine was proving to be an immensely difficult challenge – even a player of Tiger’s splendour was vulnerable.
And so it proved. He shot 75 and was usurped by Y.E. Yang, an 150/1 outsider before the off.