From betting on aliens invading earth to the resurrection of Jesus Christ, prediction markets have taken gambling in an all-new direction.
Those are rather extreme examples – but examples nonetheless – of bet types that users can place on these ultra-popular prediction market sites in the US, with the likes of Kalshi and Polymarket threatening the dominance of traditional sportsbooks, such as DraftKings and FanDuel, in the country.
Well, prediction markets are heading to the UK, with Matchbook – the betting exchange operator – confirming the launch of their new platform imminently.
But will their new site be regulated more stringently than its American counterparts… and can prediction markets take a huge chunk out of the UK sports betting market?
Perfect Match
Matchbook have revealed that their new prediction market will sit alongside their existing exchange platform.
Although an official launch date is yet to be revealed, a media release from the firm confirmed that the new platform will be unveiled in the ‘coming weeks’.
They have described it as the UK’s ‘first licensed prediction markets platform’, offering a range of questions to punters with straightforward yes or no answers.
“An exchange and a prediction market are fundamentally the same thing; it’s just the layout and there are some different nuances to it. So for us to move from an exchange to a prediction market is not a big leap,” said Matchbook’s Ronan McDonagh.
It has also been speculated that Matchbook will provide prediction market software to easyBet, the betting exchange platform launched by easyJet founder Stelios Haji-Ioannou in 2024.
Rather than traditional odds, customers bet on real-time probabilities, which change up and down based on live information and the flow of money. So, there’s no trading team deciding upon pricing and margins – instead, the customer base will decide on the probabilities that are available.
To that end, the prediction market is more akin to a betting exchange than a standard bookmaking platform – although, with questions like ‘will Taylor Swift be the most played artist on Spotify in 2026?’, operators are able to diversify beyond sports fans and perhaps attract an all-new audience.
According to industry data, around $44 billion (£32.8 billion) was wagered by Americans at prediction market sites in 2025. Perhaps traditional bookmakers and betting sites, who will no doubt increase margins and weaken odds this year in the fall-out of the UK gambling tax hike, should be fearful of this needle-moving new competition.
Rules and Regulations
Whether prediction markets enjoy a similar level of success in the UK may just be governed by how they are regulated.
Betting exchanges – upon which prediction markets are loosely based – have to be licensed and approved by the UK Gambling Commission.
However, in the United States, prediction markets AREN’T classed as sports betting – instead, they fall under the auspices of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
This has been the source of much controversy. Operators have used this loophole to launch prediction markets in states in which sports betting is still illegal – even though you can, technically, bet on some sports markets via these prediction sites.
What’s more, as prediction markets are regulated as a financial instrument as opposed to gambling, providers don’t have to adhere to the same responsible betting rules as sportsbooks – a situation that may just exacerbate problem gambling behaviours in a tiny minority.
This is something of a grey area, as far as regulation is concerned, although the assumption is that UK-facing prediction markets will need to secure a licence to operate from the Gambling Commission.
That has been backed up by the regulator themselves, who are quoted by The Observer as having said ‘any US prediction market operating in the UK would also be classified as a betting exchange and would not be able to classify itself as purveying non-gambling products.’
The British market is more experienced in dealing with questionable regulatory matters, so punters can expect fewer betting options that are subject to debate – unlike in the American market.
Venezuelan Controversy
There was outrage last week when Polymarket refused to pay out punters that had predicted that Venezuela would be invaded by the United States before the end of January. It was an outcome that many had predicted, with the firm expected to pay out millions.
However, Polymarket has ruled that Venezuela wasn’t invaded by US troops – instead, they claim, former leader Nicolas Maduro was captured in a ‘snatch and extract’ operation… which did not fit their definition of an invasion.
At the time of writing, they have refused to pay out on ‘yes’ predictions.
It was a market that garnered plenty of controversy, with several sizable ‘yes’ bets placed just hours before Donald Trump greenlit the operation – spiking fears of insider trading.