Given that it’s arguably the biggest sporting event on the planet, the World Cup should be free of the risk of fraud and suspicious activity.
But, unfortunately, even the football showpiece isn’t immune to the perils of betting-based ‘manipulation’, with one notable integrity agency claiming that multiple matches and moments at the 2026 edition could have been subject to fraud.
The Copenhagen Group, an organisation that works alongside the Council of Europe to investigate the manipulation of sports events, identified a catalogue of potential incidents to be examined further, with 15 of the World Cup’s 104 games ‘placed under enhanced surveillance’.
FIFA’s internal task force has claimed that their own in-house processes found no suspicious betting patterns, so which of these integrity bodies is right?
Integrity Risks
Although yet to publish their full report, the Copenhagen Group has offered up a precis on their website of their integrity monitoring operation.
Their processes were utilised to ‘identify and analyse the risks likely to affect the competition’, with the investigation carried out alongside the work of the FIFA Task Force.
They monitored betting markets as well as the line movements of prediction markets, which are beginning to outstrip traditional bookmakers in North America in terms of the amount of money being wagered.
The Copenhagen Group also utilised their fraud detection tools on social media, as well as using other open sources of information to gather intelligence.
In the short version of their report, they identify 12 incidents at the World Cup that they analysed further over the potential for ‘integrity risks’.
Although they don’t mention any specifically, The New York Times has since quoted a source with inside knowledge of the investigation. They claim that a handful of moments came under their microscope.
Those include the red card of South Africa’s Themba Zwane in the tournament opener against Mexico. He was dismissed in the 84th minute for appearing to strike a Mexican player in the face.
The source also claimed that the decision by VAR officials to disallow a Spain goal against Saudi Arabia, which took more than three minutes to come to, was also scrutinised in the context of irregular betting patterns.
Other red flags were perhaps in line with expected market movements. More than £3.5 million was matched on Spain not to beat Cape Verde via Polymarket, however the line movement is likely to be those sensing an upset – as opposed to any indication of fraud or match manipulation.
Another incident investigated by the Group of Copenhagen was Folarin Balogun’s sending off against Bosnia and Herzegovina, which saw the US president Donald Trump intervene.
The incident that led to a red card for Folarin Balogun.
Correct decision? pic.twitter.com/bzgLMxKFgS
— Match of the Day (@BBCMOTD) July 2, 2026
Trump reportedly called up FIFA chief Gianni Infantino, demanding that the red card was reviewed. Lo and behold, the dismissal was suspended and Balogun was free to represent the USA in their last 16 tie with Belgium.
According to the New York Times’ source, Polymarket opened a market – will Balogun play in the USA’s next game – BEFORE Trump’s intervention became headline news around the globe.
The Copenhagen Group has sent an official request to FIFA to explain its actions, while the secretary general of the Council of Europe, Alain Berset, claimed that the World Cup has raised integrity fears over ‘a sanction suspended under pressure, within days, with no reasons given.’
“Betting has moved from the result of a match to moments a single player can produce without changing the score,” Berset commented.
“A bet is won by making others lose. It is an open door to fraud. And this World Cup has opened the door wider.”
Nothing to See Here
FIFA, meanwhile, have claimed that their own integrity task force has found no evidence of suspicious betting patterns at the tournament.
The senior integrity manager with the governing body, Liam Rich, said:
“The FIFA Integrity Task Force provided a strong framework during the FIFA World Cup 2026 for sharing intelligence, assessing potential concerns and coordinating a timely response.”
Meanwhile, the IBIA – the International Betting Integrity Association – has revealed that the number of suspicious betting alerts reported to them increased in the second quarter of 2026.
The number of incidents cited rose by nearly 20% in Europe year on year, although the occurrences in North America actually fell for the same time period.
As is typically the case, football (25%) was the main contributor of the nine sports that triggered integrity alerts, with matches in Kosovo and Poland coming under the microscope. Esports (21%), basketball (13%) and tennis (12%) also prompted concerns over potential manipulation and match fixing.