The opening weekend of the new Premier League season is a joyous time for football fans across the globe.
Some will have watched the games and had a flutter; be it on the outright markets or individual matches.
But a stark warning has been issued over the number of people betting on the Premier League with black market betting sites, with an estimated £20 million wagered with unlicensed bookmakers during the course of the EPL’s opening weekend.
And that figure could hit £800 million for the full season… with expectations it will smash the £1 billion barrier as of the 2027/28 campaign.
Cashing In
From Arsenal’s 3-0 victory over Coventry to Chelsea’s thrilling 3-2 win at Fulham, it was an action-packed long weekend of Premier League action.
Unsurprisingly, punters wagered on the various options presented by their chosen betting app. However, others were placing their bets with black market firms – whether they knew it or not.
The average weekend of Premier League fixtures sees around £15-£20 million bet with unlicensed operators, according to the Betting and Gaming Council (BGC), with the likelihood that the opening weekend’s games reached the upper tier of that range – if not exceeding it.
These illegal can range from established overseas companies to private bookmakers and even individuals taking bets over WhatsApp, typically with no verification or affordability checks and no stake limits.
However, another trait that unlicensed firms share is that they have no legal obligation to operate in a way that protects their customers’ funds and personal data – nor are safer gambling tools usually made available.
And there’s the very real threat that if you win a bet with an illegal bookmaker, they may just suddenly stop replying to your messages – and you’ll never see your payout.
Grainne Hurst, the head of the BGC, wants more to be done to clamp down on unlicensed sites.
“The criminal black market is looking to cash in, taking millions of pounds on every round of matches – while offering customers none of the protections found in the regulated sector,” she said.
“These operators pay no tax, fund nothing and answer to no one. Every pound they take is a pound lost to British sport and to the Treasury.”
Tax Burden
The BGC also warns that the scale of the black market will only increase in the coming years as the new tax regime is rolled out.
The duty paid on online casino games has already been increased to 40% in a change that was rolled out in April of this year.
But as of April next year, the tax paid on online sports bets will also be hiked by some 10%. The upshot is that licensed bookmakers will look to save money by trimming their odds, cutting promotions and potentially even letting live streaming rights deals elapse – all outcomes that weaken the product they offer.
Some punters may instead be attracted by generous odds or eye-catching welcome bonuses offered by WhatsApp bookies, as well as benefitting – in their eyes – from the lack of verification checks and snooping on their financial history.
The Gambling Commission has confirmed that Financial Risk Assessments will be rolled out in due course.
While the aim of that scheme is sensible enough – to help punters who are at risk of getting into financial trouble, the unfortunate reality is that many more will reject the intrusion of a background check being performed on them.
The likely result? The black market gains a host of new customers looking to bet on the Premier League and other sporting events.
Doesn’t Ad Up
It should always be noted that the BGC represents the regulated betting sector, so they will always look to preserve the interests of their members.
But even with a generous pinch of salt taken, the prospect of £1 billion being wagered illegally on the Premier League each season should be an alarm call to the government and their regulatory bodies.
The other danger is that while the advertising spend of licensed operators falls – partly by choice (cutting costs amid increased taxation) and partly by force (the Premier League’s front-of-shirt sponsorship ban), illegal firms are able to gain more traction with their ads without having to spend any more money.
Unlicensed bookmakers already account for around half of all betting advertising, and this share will only increase – particularly on social media channels like Facebook and Instagram, as well as in Google… which is occasionally slow to block paid ads and organic search listings.
The return of Premier League football should be a celebration. But in 2026/27, the alarm bells are ringing as loudly as the fans’ songs.