A prominent credit report agency has warned that as many as 12% of people – or around one in eight – could be subject to betting fraud during the World Cup.
TransUnion have made the shocking revelation as part of a research study into the spending habits of the 25-34 age demographic.
And they have warned that young people could be exposed to fraudulent activity this summer by unlicensed betting operators, who are likely to increase in number and visibility during the World Cup.
Heightened Threat
It’s this age group that are particularly vulnerable to black market betting sites, according to TransUnion.
The number likely to fall victim to betting fraud falls to 10% for those aged 35-44, with just 1% of over 55s susceptible to such schemes.
The research conducted by TransUnion took the form of a poll of 1,000 adults, who were asked about their intended betting activity during the World Cup, which began last week and will run through until July 19.
Nearly half of all respondents (43%) in the 35-44 group revealed that they would bet more frequently during the tournament, which has expanded to 48 teams this year to make it the biggest and longest World Cup in history.
And to offer a scale of the responsible gambling issues posed, this age bracket also had the highest average bet amount – as per the study results – at £16.56, which was nearly double the average when all-age punters are taken into consideration.
But that size and volume of betting is a concern when its this age group that is most likely to sign up with an unlicensed black market bookmaker – potentially not knowing that their money isn’t guaranteed to be safe.
TransUnion’s Chad Reimers, their international vice president of fraud solutions, warned that there was a clear gap ‘between trusting a brand and checking whether it’s legitimately regulated’, with the younger demographic less likely to do their homework before handing over their personal information and deposit funds.
“The football World Cup is one of the biggest betting and social events of the year and fraudsters know it,” Reimers commented.
“Younger fans are the most enthusiastic punters, but that can bring heightened risk if they are not stopping to check the legitimacy of the provider.”
The 2026 World Cup is set to become the most bet-upon sporting event in history, but that in turn means that more money will flow to the black market – the Betting and Gaming Council is predicting a £200 million boost for the illegal sector during the tournament.
Pain In Spain
There is a general sense that prediction markets, in their form in North America at least, will never be licensed by the UK Gambling Commission.
The danger is that UK-based punters will try to access them via a VPN, as certain sites don’t seem particularly concerned about checking the identity or locale of their customers.
Prediction markets also don’t have to abide by the same responsible gambling rules as sportsbooks – they are regulated as a financial instrument in the United States, which is why some punters Stateside are able to wager astonishing sums without any kind of deposit or stake limit being put in place.
That was manifest on Monday when Spain took on Cape Verde at the World Cup. The Spaniards, the reigning European champions, were priced as short as 1/16 to defeat the minnows, who were making their World Cup debut.
But the plucky islanders clung on to a 0-0 draw, despite Spain raining 27 shots at their goal, to cost punters a considerable sum… while making another individual a cool £3.5 million.
They had used the prediction site Polymarket to bet on Spain not to beat Cape Verde, staking around £320,000 on the outcome – an amount that would be unheard of with a UK licensed bookmaker.
When the final whistle blew and Cape Verde celebrated their historic draw, the anonymous punter pocketed a cool £3.5 million for their afternoon’s work.
But it wasn’t good news for everyone. Another Polymarket customer took advantage of the site’s lax spending rules by wagering $1 million (approximately £750,000) on Spain to win the game.
They were no doubt watching on in horror as La Roja threw everything but the kitchen sink at their opponents in front of a stunned crowd in Atlanta, to no avail.
In the UK, Betfair revealed that more than £13 million had been matched on their exchange on a Spain victory, with 1,225 of their customers backing the draw at 12/1.