The United States sure knows how to put on a show.
As always, eyes will be glued to TV screens this summer as football’s World Cup heads to the USA, Canada and Mexico.
It’s the first World Cup to be held in North America since sports betting was legalised in 2018, while the popularity of having a flutter on football’s greatest show has not receded around the globe, either.
In fact, industry experts are estimating that the summer showpiece will go on to become the most bet-upon sporting event in history – with conservative estimates suggesting that as much as £37 billion could be wagered in the space of just six weeks.
Record Breakers
While it’s the games involving the host nations and international football’s major players, such as Spain, France, England and Argentina, that are expected to see the most bets placed, financial services outfit Macquarie have analysed that around £370 million will be wagered on each game.
Given that the World Cup format has been expanded from 32 teams to 48, the number of games being played has also increased to 104.
And it’s that expansion that should see the 2026 edition outstrip the revenues generated by bookmakers for the 2022 World Cup, which totalled £26 billion.
Games will, largely, be played at favourable times for the largest gambling markets in Europe and North America, while sports betting is now legalised in 39 US states – compared to 33 in 2022, with 65% of Americans now able to legally wager on football… up from 40% four years ago.
And Barron’s, the financial investments firm, has reported that the major gambling brands could process as many as 100,000 bets per minute when site/app traffic is at its peak this summer.
The World Cup final in Qatar four years ago drew a global television audience of 1.5 billion – with more viewers expected this year on July 19. That’s around eight times more viewers than the Super Bowl enjoys annually.
As such, the final of the tournament is also likely to be the most wagered-upon sporting event in history. Although it might take some doing to beat the most bet-on market of all-time: the 2020 US presidential election, which saw more than £1 billion wagered.
Of course, Macquarie’s data and predictions do not account for black market operators, who are also likely to take millions in bets during the World Cup.
According to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), more money could be wagered with unlicensed firms than with the regulated sector this summer.
Flutter president Dan Taylor commented:
“In our industry, the illegal market tears up rulebooks, is playing without a referee and faces no consequences at the final whistle.
“Closing that gap requires governments, regulators, technology platforms and licensed operators to line up together. The World Cup is the biggest fixture in sport. It’s time to make sure the regulated market is ready to play.”
Flutter, whose brands include Paddy Power, Betfair and SkyBet, have become increasingly bullish about the North American market via one of their other outfits: FanDuel.
So much so, this morning they decided to exit the London Stock Exchange, having set up residence in the New York equivalent back in 2024.
In a statement, a spokesperson for Flutter confirmed that they had ‘concluded that it is in the best interests of the company and its shareholders to proceed with the LSE delisting.’
On Wednesday, the firm revealed that they were launching their own prediction market in a bid to take on the likes of Kalshi and Polymarket, whose platforms saw more than £32 billion traded last year alone.
England Expects?
At the time of writing, more than £9 million had been matched on the World Cup winner market at the Betfair Exchange alone.
That figure is likely to increase exponentially throughout the tournament, and is likely to surpass the record recorded four years ago.
Perhaps somewhat surprisingly, England haven’t seen the most trading activity. The Three Lions have been backed in from an opening price of 10/1 down to 15/2, although backers and layers have combined for just £1.2 million.
That is outstripped by both France and Spain in terms of activity, with the 2022 World Cup finalists and the reigning European champions both seeing £1.5 million in money traded.
Brazil and Portugal are next in the league table with around £900,000 traded on each, although only £25,000 has been matched on Scotland to win the World Cup at odds of 350/1.