It’s official: the U.S. Election betting market on the most popular betting exchange has breached the £100 million mark.
There’s still eleven days to go until the polls officially open for voting, but it looks likely that the battle for the White House between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris will break political betting records.
And when you consider the volume of bets placed on the election at traditional bookmakers and other betting exchanges, it’s possible that Trump vs Harris could become one of the most bet-upon events of any kind in history.
Breaking New Ground
As it stands, the 2024 vote still has some way to go to catch up with the extraordinary sum wagered on the U.S. Election four years ago.
Back then, the incumbent President Trump took on young upstart Joe Biden at the ballot, with the Democratic Party candidate going on to upset the bullish Republican.
Although Betfair did not publish a final volume of the bets they took, it was thought to be in the region of a staggering £380 million. Company spokesperson Sam Rosbottom had predicted ‘half a billion dollars’ would be wagered via the peer-to-peer betting platform.
Elsewhere, estimates suggested that the global betting handle for the 2020 Election exceeded £1 billion, with several seven-figure bets taken by bookmakers willing to accept such steep action.
It was the biggest single betting market ever formed. The second largest? That was the 2016 U.S. Election, when Trump downed Hilary Clinton, with £200 million of bets taken by the Betfair Exchange alone.
Topsy Turvy
With more than a week to go until the 2024 vote, there’s ample opportunity for the figures of four years ago to be breached – particularly as the outcome seems to be far from a formality.
Trump has shortened considerably in the betting of late, with a previously 50/50 market now favouring the hirsute Republican at around 1.66. Harris, meanwhile, has lengthened to around 2.54, from an all-time, odds-on low of 1.82.
As tends to be the case with ‘Marmite’ political figures, much of the action has come for Trump – be it backing or laying. Some £57 million has been matched on the former Apprentice judge, with the rest shared between Harris (£33 million) and the various other candidates that have been involved in the race for the White House at some point.
A number of noted pundits and pollsters have predicted that Harris will defeat Trump in the vote, including the so-called ‘Nostradamus’ of political predictions, Allan Lichtman, who has correctly projected the outcome of nine of the last ten U.S. elections.
And vaunted stats firm FiveThirtyEight has crunched the numbers and given Trump a 51% chance of winning, with Harris the narrowest of underdogs with 49% of the market.
When you also factor in the complicated voting system that American politics uses, with the possible separation of the electoral college and popular vote, it’s more than possible that the 2024 election will go right down to the wire – which will in turn see millions more wagered on the outcome.
Super Bowled Over
It’s remarkable to think that more is wagered on the U.S. Election by punters based in the UK than their own domestic General Election.
But that continues the trend of increased betting volume on American events….as Entain have reported this week.
According to the Ladbrokes and Coral owner, bookmakers are receiving record numbers of bets from UK punters on the leading American football competition, the NFL.
Entain have revealed that their firms have witnessed a 60% increase in the number of NFL bets placed this season compared to 2023. That is backed by a rise in the amount wagered of 46%, with much of that going on the ever-popular player prop markets – they have seen a 90% year on year increase.
The company had reported a record number of bets placed on the Super Bowl back in February, with a 12% rise in the UK and Europe alone.
And all of this data generally falls into line with that recorded in the American market, where predictions have suggested the NFL betting handle could reach a mammoth $35 billion during the 2024/25 season – the equivalent of £27 billion.
As you would imagine then, Entain are pretty chipper about their immediate future. They have revealed that their performance in 2024 has wildly exceeded even their own expectations; having predicted that they might even make a loss this year given the challenging trading conditions around the globe.
Instead, they look set to post growth in the region of 1-5% – aided, no doubt, by the American double-header of election and NFL frenzy.